As at 1 September, compared to 31 August, the national average price of E5 increased from 1,85 to 2.08 euros/litre while the average price of diesel increased from 2.09 to 2.18 euros/litre. Since then the average prices have changed only slightly: On 7 September the price of E5 amounted to 2.06, the price of diesel to 2.17 euros/litre.

The surge in prices in early September (E5: 23 cents, diesel: 9 cents) was less than the additional amount resulting from the discontinuation of the tax reduction (E5: 35 cents, diesel: 17 cents). The current price increase was also somewhat lower than the average price decrease following the reductions in the tax burden on fuel introduced on 1 June (E5: 27 cents; diesel: 11 cents).

Price differences in the course of a day

In the course of a day fuel prices differ considerably. Prices in the same city or region differ by more than 20 cents/litre. At one and the same petrol station price differences of up to 13 cents/litre can be observed in the course of a day, with prices being lowest in the evening.

Price comparisons providing orientation to consumers should therefore always also look at the respective average prices as well as the same petrol stations and periods of a day.

Prices still differ greatly between regions

In addition, comparing prices in various regions also shows that there are great differences between the regions in the north and the south, with prices in southern Germany exceeding prices in northern Germany by 27 cents/litre for E5 and by 24 cents/litre for diesel.

Factors relevant to the development of prices

In addition to the energy tax rate and the development of the crude oil price, fuel prices are also influenced by a number of other factors.

Andreas Mundt, President of the Bundeskartellamt: “Players in the sector particularly mention shortages and cost increases. There are certain circumstances, such as the reduction of refinery capacities during the pandemic, missing import volumes from Russia, technical failures at refineries, transport problems ensuing from low water levels and the renewed increase in demand, which have to be taken into account. Shortages result in price increases. This is a general economic principle. The question whether this sufficiently explains the price development and the still considerable difference between fuel prices and crude oil prices is assessed in our investigation of refineries and wholesalers. We intend to present the first results of our investigation in autumn.”

Passing on energy tax reductions to consumers

Against this background, it is not possible to determine the extent to which the energy tax reductions were passed on to consumers by comparing the current prices with those before 1 June in an isolated manner. Instead, the actual price level has to be compared with the price level that (presumably) would have emerged without the energy tax reduction. However, determining such a hypothetical comparison price is a very complex matter.

Andreas Mundt: “Several scientific studies addressing this question have drawn on the development of prices in France. The studies suggest that the energy tax reduction was indeed passed on to a considerable extent. We are also carrying out our own calculations in this regard. While comparing the prices in different countries provides helpful information, it is not possible to conclusively assess the different competitive situations in both countries.”

Sector inquiry into refineries and wholesalers

In April the Bundeskartellamt initiated a sector inquiry into refineries and wholesalers due to the increasing decoupling of the prices charged at petrol stations and by refineries from the crude oil price. Similar price developments could also be observed in the past few weeks. In the context of the sector inquiry all relevant refineries have already been surveyed extensively. We are currently analysing the information provided with regard to market and cost structures and actual profit margins. An interim report is to be published in autumn.